Nikola Jokić is bearing down on a feat not accomplished since the 1980s.
The Nuggets’ center is a heavy betting favorite at SI Sportsbook to win his third consecutive NBA MVP award with -175 odds. Only three players in NBA history have done so: Bill Russell (1960-63), Wilt Chamberlain (1965-68) and Larry Bird (1983-86).
Joel Embiid, runner-up two years running, has the next-best odds to take home the hardware, but he’s a distant second at +400 odds. Rounding out the top three is the last player not named Jokić to win MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo at +650 odds.
There’s still roughly two months remaining in the regular season but Jokić has built a sizable lead on the competition, in the betting markets at least. He began the year tied for the fourth-best odds to win MVP at +850, a figure that has shortened considerably since October.
His scoring average is down from a career-high 27.1 points per game a season ago to 24.9 this year. To counter that dip, Jokić’s shooting efficiency has markedly improved from the field and from three, plus his 10.1 assists per game is not only the third-best mark in the league but it also gives him a triple-double average for the first time.
The advanced statistics further make Jokić’s case. He’s first in player impact estimate, player efficiency rating, win shares, value over replacement player, offensive rating and net rating. Denver, which finished sixth in 2022 and third in 2021, is on track to finish first in the West with a 4.5-game lead on second place and currently owns the third-best record in the NBA.
Embiid once again leads the league in scoring at 33.4 points per game, almost a three-point jump from the previous season. He, too, has bettered his field-goal percentage and is averaging a double-double for the sixth season in a row. Embiid is also first in the NBA with 10 made free throws per game, another career-high. He began the season with +550 odds to win MVP, second-best in the Association.
For what it’s worth, in their one head-to-head matchup so far this season, Embiid outplayed Jokić in a win for Philadelphia. He tallied 47 points and 18 boards to Jokić’s 24 points. They’ll meet again in late March in Denver.
Embiid only trails Jokić and Antetokounmpo in many advanced statistical categories and he also ranks second in usage percentage behind only Luka Dončić. Antetokounmpo is third by that metric while Jokić is having an uber-efficient season with just the 10th highest usage rate in the NBA.
The 76ers are in third in the Eastern Conference and have the fourth-best record in the NBA. They earned the 1-seed two years ago and finished fourth last year.
Antetokounmpo is making a late push for his third MVP as the Bucks are closing in on the Celtics for the best record in basketball. His 32.4 points per game average is a career-best mark, and it’s not all that far behind Dončić and Embiid. Antetokounmpo also leads the NBA in rebounding at 12.3 per game. His odds have lengthened marginally after he began the campaign with +600 odds, third-best.
Milwaukee finished third each of the last two seasons and won the East in 2019 and 2020, both times Antetokounmpo won MVP. The Bucks have the second-best record in the NBA and trail the Celtics by 1.5 games.
Beyond the top three, Dončić, the preseason favorite, is fourth at +1000 odds. He’s been banged up lately with a heel injury but is in the midst of the best season of his young career. Jayson Tatum, whose Celtics have the best record in the NBA and are runaway title favorites, is in fifth with +1400 odds. After Tatum, there’s a massive falloff to Ja Morant at +5000 odds.
2022-23 NBA MVP Odds
Nikola Jokic -175
Joel Embiid +400
Giannis Antetokounmpo +650
Luka Doncic +1000
Jayson Tatum +1400
Ja Morant +5000
LeBron James +6000
Kevin Durant +10000
Steph Curry +175000